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Hog Markets

Pandemic causes unprecedented hog market volatility

Apr 7, 2020 | 5:07 PM

COVID-19 is responsible for a level of hog market volatility that hasn’t been seen in 20 years.

HAMS Marketing Services director of risk management Tyler Fulton said the pandemic has fueled uncertainty over demand for pork.

There has been a steady downward trend in the cash market over the last week. Fulton said the futures have lost about a third of their value in the past 10 days.

“What we’ve got is something unique that we’ve never seen before and that is food service, or the restaurant business, has effectively dried up,” he said. “There are still restaurants open for takeout in North America but very few that are still open. There is significantly reduced traffic even if they are open.”

Fulton said this has caused a complete shift in where pork is being consumed.

“We’ve never has any previous experiences with this and we think there’s likely going to be some loss in terms of demand just because of the major disruptions. While there’s going to be some meat cuts we’re consuming more of than we ever have before in the home, there are other cuts consumers are generally less likely to use to cook at home. This will mean significant declines because there’ll be an over supply.”

Fulton said they can’t predict what consumers are going to eat or how the export markets will respond.

“It’s really difficult to take the domestic situation and say we’re going to see gains in these cuts and losses in these cuts. They you apply another layer of what’s happening on the export front. Exports are still generally performing fairly well but not near enough to offset all of the other uncertainty and the other disruptions.”

Fulton said most people in the industry are taking a ‘wait and see’ approach.

“Examine in retrospect in future months, what demand did to figure out how things performed and how things can be improved,” he said.

alice.mcfarlane@jpbg.ca

On Twitter: @AliceMcF

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