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By Alice McFarlane

Cattle Markets

Cattle prices to remain stable

Jan 6, 2020 | 2:00 PM

A cattle market analyst said prices should be very similar to last year.

Anne Wasko of Eastend is a cattle market analyst with Gateway Livestock. She said it was a great year with good demand and there is no reason to expect that won’t continue through the first half of the year.

“Generally speaking, all classes of cattle continued strong and solid for us in 2019. Ultimately, feed prices have a lot to do with feeder cattle or calf prices through the year,” she said. “Of course, with Mother Nature, we don’t know what she’s going to throw at us. Those are the two biggest factors.”

Wasko said she expects a similar range to last year.

“I don’t see a big difference. Seasonal markets usually run into a little bit of trouble in the first quarter of the year and by the time we get into the third quarter of the year we usually see our highs. That’s the way it was in 2019. I don’t expect that to be any different in 2020,” she said.

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Wasko said demand has been great for finished cattle in Western Canada, and demand will still be strong domestically.

“Remember, from a seasonal perspective, usually we see our highs placed in that springtime frame of March and April. I would expect that to be the case again this year,” she said. “We have lots of cattle on feed when we get into summer of 2020. I expect to see a pretty seasonal transition as we go from spring to summer again in 2020.”

One estimate places the economic loss in China from Swine Fever at $141 billion. That’s one quarter of the hog population lost due to ASF. Wasko said this is the main reason for increased demand on the world marketplace for animal protein like cattle.

“As we’ve come through 2019 and into 2020, the impact of African swine fever in China and other Asian countries is playing a part in pushing prices up. We got back access for Canadian beef and pork late this year after being shut out of China for four months. Our numbers will improve as we export into China,” Wasko said.

While Wasko expects prices to stay the same, she is keeping a watchful eye on feed costs the Canadian dollar and the U.S. election.

“There’s lots of things happening in 2020 in terms of an election, you’ve still got a US and China trade war going on. Those things are all going to ultimately play into what Canadian prices will be. But at this point in time, I’m going to suggest prices not much different than what we saw in 2019.”

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alice.mcfarlane@jpbg.ca

On Twitter: @AliceMcF